Sadiq Khan and Transport for London have confirmed that some fares will rise by an average of 4.6 percent in 2025. From 2 March, London Underground fares will go up, whilst bus and tram fares remain frozen. This is interesting for at least two reasons: for what it says about the Mayor’s approach to the price of public transport, and for what it reveals about relations between the City Hall and national levels of Labour government.
Khan’s mayoralty has been notable for repeated eye-catching commitments to freeze fares on London’s public transport. They were held static for five years, from 2016 to 2021, following a clear manifesto commitment, although they have risen since Covid (and only single fares were actually ever frozen, of course, with the cost of travelcards, outside of mayoral control, continuing to rise).
The Mayor surely the policy as a vote winner, and doing this or even reducing them has long been a left-wing cause in the capital, going back to Ken Livingstone’s controversial Fares Fair initiative when he led the Greater London Council. This sought to significantly reduce fares by levering up “the rates” across the capital. Interviewed for the book London’s Mayor at 20, Livingstone claimed that whilst Mayors have few levers to pull to deal with the capital’s stark economic inequalities, “cutting fares by increasing Council Tax was still a redistribution of wealth”.
By contrast, Boris Johnson’s mayoralty saw repeated fare increases and and focus on reducing the mayor’s Council Tax precept. Fares rose by 42 per cent over his time at City Hall. So has Khan abandoned his left-wing principles, just at the moment we have a Labour government?
In a word: no. Khan has continued the Livingstone legacy by keeping bus and tram fares as they were. His claim that the money raised by tube fare increases will “help us move forward” with new bus schemes such as Superloop 2 and the proposed “Bakerloop” further highlights this prioritisation of the bus network and, arguably, Livingstone’s “redistribution of wealth”. Buses and trams are more likely to be used by the poorest Londoners, disabled Londoners and those in outer London. There is a clear choice being made here.
What does all this say about Khan’s relationship with central government? In his announcement, the Mayor cited pressure from above, saying “The government has made it clear that if we want to secure vital national funding for essential transport projects, TfL tube and rail fares would need to increase in line with national rail fares”.
Neil Garratt, leader of the London Assembly Conservative group, took to X to claim that “the Labour government [has] suspended the Mayor’s rail fare powers“, comparing this to the Conservative government’s power grab of TfL in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. And at first glance, Khan does appear to be saying the new government has forced the fares rise on him, something he has accused the Conservatives of doing in the past.
Garratt’s claim is essentially that governments of both political hues have shown that they don’t trust or agree with Khan’s fares freeze policy by forcefully overriding it. But are the two interventions really comparable? Are they evidence that, following the constant public disagreements between the Labour Mayor and successive Conservative national administrations, there is now trouble in paradise with the new regime?
I doubt it. The Mayor’s 2024 manifesto committed to freezing fares only “until at least March 2025” and for “as long as economic conditions allow”. This wording hinted heavily towards change from March 2025, so the new announcement should not come as a surprise. It also echoed what the then transport secretary, Louise Haigh, told him in a letter at the end of October.
The Mayor will surely be pleased with the (sizeable) continuing capital investment Haigh’s letter also committed to, given the wider national climate of austerity-that-dare-not-speak-its-name. It may be that, as a BBC headline put it, the Mayor’s transport funding ask had “halved”. Yet that surely reflects little more than the differing politics of public negotiations with a Tory government deemed hostile (ask for lots, express outrage when not granted the full amount) and a friendlier one (ask for less, celebrate a huge win when more is granted).
London’s transport network has done OK under the new government so far. The Mayor’s fares freezes have been electorally successful, but not unanimously praised as helpful to TfL’s finances. It is clear that London’s transport network needs investment, with several Underground lines under severe pressure and bus speeds substantially down. Khan will surely welcome the opportunity to have a clear rationale for raising London Underground fares – and, perhaps, to have someone to blame for it. For its part, central government probably won’t mind being seen as tough on spending.
There is one more aspect to be considered. The reportedly soon-to-be-knighted Sadiq Khan is into his third mayoral term, and it would be surprising if he ran for a fourth. Not a bad time, then, for him to show a little flexibility on fares.
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