The recently-published Transport for London report about progress towards implementing Sadiq Khan’s transport strategy contains lots of interesting information, some of it encouraging. There is, though, a sobering element summarised by a graph on page 21, reproduced below.
This shows the estimated “mode share” between different categories of travel method between the years 2019 and 2023, a period which included, of course, the profound disruptions of the pandemic, when people stayed at home far more than usual and made dramatically less use of public transport.
During the Covid-19 period hopes were expressed by national and London government alike that a silver lining might be found in the form of a shift away from, in particular, private motor vehicle use and towards getting around by bicycle and on foot. But the TfL graph tells us that during the first full post-pandemic year, 2023, the mode share of a slightly reduced overall number of trips was almost exactly the same as for 2019, the final full pre-pandemic year.
As you can see, in 2019, private transport (primarily cars) accounted for an estimated 36 per cent share, public transport for 35 per cent, walking for 25 per cent and cycling for 3.6 per cent. In 2023, those percentages were, respectively, 36, 34, 26 and 4.6 – almost exactly the same. The proportions changed during the height of the disease, but have gone back to almost exactly where they were.
A major goal of the Mayor’s strategy is that 80 per cent of all trips in London should be made by “active, efficient and sustainable modes” – basically, by foot, bike or public transport – by 2041. A trip is defined as a one-way movement from an origin to a destination to achieve a specific purpose, such as going to the shops or to work. This is in line with the aims of improving public health and reducing road traffic congestion, which hinders economy efficiency.
The report highlights as “encouraging” progress towards that target, saying that 64.2 per cent of trips were made by active, efficient and sustainable modes in 2023, an increase on the 62.3 per cent of 2022 (these figures differ fractionally from those on the bars on the graph).
This seems to be mostly down to a continuing, gradual recovery in public transport use. Recent bus demand is described in the report as being closer to pre-pandemic levels than that for the Underground, which has been more affected by the growth of working from home.
The report also highlights an 20 per cent increase in “daily cycling stages” in 2023 compared with 2019, a “journey stage” being a component part of a trip, though as the graph shows, cycling continues to account for a very small proportion of Londoners’ travel.
The report, which runs to 128 pages, also contains updates on important matters such as the Ultra-Low Emission Zone and air quality in general, alterations to dangerous road junctions and in travel safety. It cites a summary of evidence it published last year to back its assertion that Low Traffic Neighbourhoods, whose impacts are hotly contested, “are making streets safer for by lowering traffic levels, reducing street crime and enabling people to walk and cycle more”.
In its conclusion, the report says that as the programmes of the strategy have settled in “we have seen progress compared to last year on many of the outcomes” while stressing that its goals remain “ambitious”. The strategy was published in 2018, though Covid severely disrupted it for two years, during which senior managers were also hampered by the attitude to TfL of the national government of the time.
The report also sets out what it calls “three key areas for action in the immediate term”: improving bus journey times, more progress on safety, and “continuing investment”. On the latter point it says, “longer-term funding certainty, which most other major cities have into the next decade, is still needed, and we look forward to future discussions with Government on this”. Read the TfL report in full here.
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